基于ANP-PP-SPA的区域洪灾风险评价模型研究

Assessment model for regional flood risks based on ANP-PP-SPA

针对现有洪灾风险评价模型的缺陷与不足,从致灾因子、孕灾因子、承灾因子和减灾因子4个方面,通过对14项评价指标的分析与计算,构建洪灾风险评价体系。洪灾风险评价体系以网络层次分析法(ANP)求解主观权重,投影寻踪法(PP)求解客观权重,主客观综合权重与集对分析理论(SPA)耦合,构建基于ANP-PP-SPA的洪灾风险评价模型。以广东省英德市为例,验证洪灾风险评价模型的适用性。计算结果表明,英德市2016年的洪灾风险属于中等级别,符合英德市2016年的实际情况。洪灾风险评价模型不仅综合考虑了评价指标间的相互关系,还较好地体现了洪灾风险的模糊性和随机性,能够为区域洪灾风险决策和洪水管理提供科学依据。

The flood risk assessment is an important basis for formulating the corresponding flood control and disaster reduction measures and plays an important role in the safety and protection of people's lives and property.In view of the deficiencies and shortcomings of the existing assessment models for flood risks,an assessment system for flood risks is established from the four aspects of disaster-causing,disaster-breeding,disaster-bearing and disaster mitigation through analysis and calculation of 14 evaluation indices.The subjective and the objective weights are solved by using the analytic network process(ANP)and the projection pursuit(PP),respectively.An assessment model for flood risks based on ANP-PP-SPA is established by coupling the subjective and objective weights with the set pair analysis(SPA).Taking Yingde City of Guangdong Province as an example,the applicability of the assessment model for flood risks is verified.The results show that the flood risk grade of 2016 in Yingde City is medium,which accords with the actual situation of 2016 in Yingde City.The assessment model considers the relationship among the indices and reflects the ambiguity and randomness of flood risks,and it can provide a scientific basis for the regional flood risk decision-making and the flood management.