制造业就业、国际贸易与中国

MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT,INTERNATIONAL TRADE,AND CHINA

本文旨在更好地理解全球制造业就业的演变。自2000年以来,制造业增加值增长迅速,这主要是因为对制成品的需求不断增长,尤其是发展中国家。不过,无论是在金融危机之前还是之后,制造业就业都增长得非常缓慢。制造业新增工作岗位只能为10%的新增劳动力和农村转移劳动力提供就业机会。大部分制造业新增工作岗位主要都在中国,大多数国家的制造业就业占比都在下降,还有一些国家(包括几乎所有发达国家)的制造业就业人口出现了绝对下降现象。中国的经济转型非常成功,使其就业人数大幅增长,但中国生产的大部分制成品都在国内消费了,尤其是金融危机之后更是如此,因此中国日益融入世界贸易并不是世界其他地区制造业就业停止增长的根本原因。在我们所研究的样本国家中,就业下降的主要原因是自动化和生产方法的改进使劳动生产率提高,而不是制造业贸易的变化,这与人们普遍的观点不一样。我们发现证明制造业(用不同方式衡量)的规模与经济快速发展之间有相关性的证据不多。

The objective of this paper is to better understand the evolution of manufacturing employment across the world. Manufacturing value added has grown rapidly since 2000, reflecting mainly rising demand for manufactures especially in developing countries. However, manufacturing employment increased at only a slow pace, both before and after the global financial crisis. Manufacturing employment growth provided only about 10% of the new jobs needed to compensate for losses in agriculture and the growth of the active population. Most of the net job creation in manufacturing was in China, while most countries saw manufacturing employment decline as a share of total employment and several, including all or nearly all advanced countries, saw an absolute decline. The remarkable economic transformation in China has brought shifts in employment within the country. But, because China tends to consume much of the manufactures it produces, especially since the financial crisis, its increased integration into world trade is not at the root of the manufacturing employment stagnation in the rest of the world. In the sample of the countries we examined, the increase in labor productivity in manufactures, due to automation and improved methods, was a far more important cause of employment decline than shifts in the manufacturing trade balance, contrary to a commonly held view. We find only weak evidence that the size of the manufacturing sector-measured in different ways--is associated with rapid economic growth.