英美央行利率走势研判

RESEARCH AND JUDGMENT ON THE TREND OF INTEREST OF THE BRITISH AND AMERICAN CENTRAL BANKS

美英央行实行负利率是必然,其原因在于经济增长基本走向极限,长期趋向低增长乃至负增长,在利率已经接近零时,下次危机则必然采取负利率政策。低通胀和量化宽松将让央行对负利率更大胆乃至放心。减轻财政赤字和利息负担需要负利率,以降低国债利息率。而美元泛滥、量化宽松的历史表明不需要担心负利率的不利影响。

It is inevitable for the central bank of the US and the UK to adopt negative interest rate. The reason is that the economic growth is basically approaching the limit and tends to low growth or even negative growth for a long time. When the interest rate is close to zero, the next crisis is bound to adopt negative interest rate policy. Low inflation and quantitative easing will make central banks bolder and more comfortable with negative interest rates. Reducing the fiscal deficit and the interest burden requires negative interest rates to reduce the interest rate on government bonds. Moreover, the history of dollar flooding and quantitative easing suggests there is no need to worry about the adverse effects of negative interest rates.