“一带一路”农业投资风险评估及其对农业“走出去”的启示

Risk evaluation of agricultural investment along“The Belt and Road”route and its implications for China’s agricultural“Going Out”

在"一带一路"倡议深入推进背景下,系统评估沿线国家农业投资风险,对于推动我国农业又好又稳地"走出去"具有重要意义。本文立足风险管理理论,从政治、经济与市场、社会、行业四个方面构建了对外农业投资风险评估指标体系,采用熵值法比较分析沿线国家农业投资风险水平,通过聚类分析划分风险等级,进而得出对中国农业"走出去"的启示。结果表明,2005年以来"一带一路"沿线农业投资风险水平总体呈现减小趋势;投资风险水平存在显著的地域差异,东南亚和沿线发达经济体的投资风险较低,中东欧和中亚次之,南亚、西亚和北非投资风险较高;经济与市场维度、行业维度的风险水平波动减小,政治和社会维度无明显变化规律。结合当前我国对外农业投资特征与国际经贸形势,立足沿线农业投资风险特征,建议进一步优化产业链布局、开拓潜在投资市场、重视防控文化差异风险、制定对外农业投资风险联合应对机制,以有效化解对外农业投资风险,稳步推动我国农业"走出去"。

Under the background of continuous advancement of "The Belt and Road" initiative,systematic evaluation of agricultural investment risks in foreign countries along the "The Belt and Road" route is of great significance for promoting the policy of China’s agricultural "Going Out".Based on the risk management theory,this paper constructed an evaluation index system from four aspects,including politics,economics and market,society,and agricultural industry,and adopted an improved entropy value method to compare and to analyze the risk levels of agricultural investment in foreign countries along the route.In addition,this paper also adopted the clustering analysis to divide the levels of risks and discussed the inspirations of China’s agricultural "Going Out" strategy.Results show that the overall risk level of agricultural investment along "The Belt and Road" route was decreasing since 2005.Besides,there were significant regional differences in the comprehensive risk levels,with lower investment risks in Southeast Asia and developed countries,followed by Central Asia and Central and Eastern Europe,and higher investment risks in South Asia,West Asia and North Africa.Additionally,the risk level fluctuations in the economic and market dimension as well as the industrial dimension were reduced,and there were no obvious changes in the political and social dimensions.Based on the above analysis results and taking into account the characteristics of China’s agricultural investment and the international economic and trade situations,to steadily promote China’s agricultural "Going Out" strategy,this paper recommends to further optimize the layout of the agricultural industry chain,to explore potential investment markets,to pay attention to the risks of cultural diversity,and to establish a joint mechanism to hedge or reduce major agricultural investment risks.