黑龙江省水-能源-粮食系统动力学模拟

System dynamics simulation of WEF nexus in Heilongjiang Province

基于系统动力学理论,建立黑龙江省水-能源-粮食纽带关系仿真模型,对2010-2017年黑龙江省水资源的供需情况和能源、粮食的生产与消费进行模拟。通过设置和对比4种不同的发展方案,探究黑龙江省水-能源-粮食合理的配置方案。结果表明:黑龙江省的水资源安全形势较为严峻,在4种发展方案中,采取严格规划方案的正面效果最显著;强化发展方案下的能源消耗最明显,无论采取哪种发展方案,如果不对能源消费量加以控制,全省的能源安全可能无法保证;黑龙江省的粮食安全比较稳定,不易受外部条件的影响,保守节约方案下的粮食库存和粮食供需平衡比最大;仅采取一种发展方案可能无法实现水-能源-粮食系统的整体安全。

A simulation model of WEF nexus in Heilongjiang Province was established based on the theory of system dynamics,in which the supply and demand of water resources and the production and consumption of energy and food from 2010 to 2017 were simulated.Four different development patterns were set for exploring the rational allocation pattern of water-energy-food in Heilongjiang Province.The results show that the situation of water security in Heilongjiang Province is severe.Adoption of the strictest planning pattern will lead to a most significant positive effect among the four development patterns.The consumption of energy under the enhanced development pattern is the most obvious,and the energy security of the whole province could not be guaranteed no matter which development pattern is adopted if the energy consumption is not under control.The food security of Heilongjiang Province is relatively stable and not easily affected by external conditions.The ratio of food inventory and food supply-demand balance will get maximum under the conservative saving pattern.The overall security of the water-energy-food system may not be achieved by a single development pattern.