基于层次分析法的专家研判系统设计

Design of Expert Research and Judgment System Based on Analytic Hierarchy Progress

近年来,各种传染病与疫情不断,给人民的生活与社会的稳定都造成了一定的影响。风险评估由于其具有提前预警、快速控制、合理防控等特点,在传染病疫情的防控中发挥了巨大的作用。虽然专家评分对项目评估具有很大的参考意义,但是由于专家可能存在对项目熟悉程度的差异与个人主观因素,会导致其对项目评分出现过低或过高的情况,从而影响结果的可靠性。本文针对不同的传染病及宿主设计专家评分系统,通过组建专家组进行风险评估,由专家对每个风险因子进行风险性分析,并对把握程度进行自评。然后通过层次分析法(AHP)对打分结果进行分析,生成评估结果,最后生成风险评估报告,从而实现高效、准确评估传染病的目的,以便于相关部门采取科学合理的防控措施。

In recent years,various infectious diseases and epidemics have adversely affected people's lives and social stability.Since risk assessment has many advantages such as early warning,rapid control,and reasonable prevention,it has played an extremely significant role in the prevention and control of infectious diseases.Although expert ratings could have a significant impact on the project evaluation,the project can be given a too high or too low score due to the fact that experts may have differences in the degree of familiarity on the project and personal subjective factors;thus,the reliability of the results could be seriously affected.In this paper,we design an expert judgment system for different infectious diseases and their hosts.By establishing an expert group for risk assessment,experts can conduct risk analysis on each risk factor and self-assessment of the degree of mastery.Then,assessment results can be generated after Analytic hierarchy process(AHP)analysis of the scoring results so that a risk assessment report can be achieved.Consequently,it is possible to evaluate infectious diseases accurately and efficiently,which could assist relevant departments in taking scientific and reasonable prevention measures.