产业结构高级化对区域用水总量时空差异的驱动效应研究

Driving Effect of Advanced Industrial Structure on Spatio-temporal Difference of Regional Water Use

将影响区域用水总量变化的产业结构效应细分为工业化收入效应、产业结构高级化效应(TS)和第三产业提取效应,构造区域用水总量时空差异的LMDI分解拓展模型,重点探究T S的具体驱动渠道和内在机制。以长江经济带为例得知:TS是抑制2000-2018年经济带用水总量上升的重要驱动力,但抑制力从2012年开始变弱,建议发展节水型第三产业;2016年以来各省市产业结构高级化水平的提高可抑制其相比于比较基准(上海市和重庆市)的用水总量增加,云南省和湖南省需优化水资源在一、二产业间的配置,四川省、云南省、重庆市、江西省和安徽省更需提高第三产业发展水平。

This paper decomposes the industrial structure effect which influences water use change into the effects of industrialization income,advanced industrial structure(TS)and reciprocal contribution of tertiary industry.Then,it proposes an extend LMDI model for decomposing the spatio-temporal difference of regional water use,and focuses on the specific channels and internal mechanisms of TS,an dits internal differences in the three industries.Taking Yangtze river economic belt as an exam ple,results show that:TS is an important driver for inhibiting the increase of total water use for 2000-2018,but the inhibiting force has weakened since 2012.It suggests to develop water-saving tertiary industry for controlling the total water use.The improvement of the advanced industrial structure for each area can inhibit the increase of total water consumption compared with the benchmark(Shanghai and Chongqing cities).Yunnan and Hunan provinces need to optimize water allocation between the primary and secondary industries,and Sichuan,Yunnan,Chongqing,Jiangxi and Anhui provinces need to improve water-saving capacity of the tertiary industry.