突发事件下安全舆情的传播与演变——以江苏响水天嘉宜化工有限公司“3.21”特别重大爆炸事故为例

Dissemination and evolution of safety public opinion under emergency events:taking“3.21”special serious explosion accident of Jiangsu Xiangshui tianjiayi Chemical Co.,Ltd.as an example

为明确突发事件安全舆情传播与演变路径,提高企业防控突发事件安全舆情传播风险能力,降低衍生灾害发生概率,在文献分析及事故致因理论基础上,构建突发事件安全舆情传播与演变过程的系统动力学(SD)模型,并运用Vensim软件对以江苏响水天嘉宜化工有限公司“3.21”特别重大爆炸事故为例进行仿真实验,模拟安全舆情传播与演变动态过程。结果表明:突发事件安全舆情传播与演变主要受事件自身、媒体、相关企业监管层、相关企业执行层4个主体的共同影响,其中事件自身因素起效时间最早,相关企业监管层影响作用最大、维持时间最持久,相关企业执行层影响最直接。

In order to clarify the dissemination and evolution paths of the safety public opinion in the emergency events,improve the abilities of enterprises to prevent and control the dissemination risk of safety public opinion,and reduce the occurrence probability of derivative disasters,on the basis of literature analysis and accident cause theory,a system dynamics(SD)model for the dissemination and evolution processes of safety public opinion in the emergency events was constructed.The simulation experiment of“3.21”special serious explosion accident of Jiangsu Xiangshui tianjiayi Chemical Co.,Ltd.was carried out by using Vensim software to simulate the dynamic process of the spread and evolution of safety public opinion.The results showed that the dissemination and evolution of safety public opinion in the emergency events were mainly affected by four subjects together,including the event itself,the media,the relevant enterprise supervisory layer and the relevant enterprise executive layer.Among them,the event itself had the earliest effect time,the relevant enterprise supervisory layer had the greatest effect and the longest maintain time,and the related enterprise executive layer had the most direct influence.