基于目标偏差的政策组合效果评价

Evaluation of the Effect of Policy Portfolio Based on Target Deviation

目标责任考核制下,目标偏差会影响政策效果,是政策效果评价中不容回避的事实。本文以东莞“倍增计划”政策的相关数据为基础,利用双重差分法检验目标偏差下的政策实施效果及政策工具组合使用的政策效果。结果表明:(1)目标偏差会导致政策效果偏离政策初衷,未纳入目标责任考核的绩效维度会受到较少关注,创新驱动发展目标的实现在一定程度上取决于考核目标设定的精准程度。(2)存在目标设定偏差时,简单的政策叠加无益于政策目标的实现,只有综合程度、均衡程度较高的政策组合才能实现政策目标,因此,要通过优化政策工具组合提升政策效果,尤其是在资金、土地等资源有限的情况下,政策扶持要“扶强扶优”而非“撒胡椒面”。研究结论从政策目标设置和政策工具选择两个方面为精准施策提供了有意义的启示。

Under the target responsibility assessment system,target deviation will inevitably affect policy effects.Based on the data of Dongguan’s“doubling plan”policy,this article examines the policy effect of policy mix with the target deviation using DID method.Results show that:(1)target deviation will cause deviation from the original intention of the policy,and performance dimensions not included in the target responsibility assessment will receive less attention.The realization of innovation driven development is partially determined by the accurate setting of assessment goals.(2)Due to target deviation,original intention of the policy will be attained only when the policy tools are reasonably combined rather than overlaid baselessly.Therefore,it is necessary to improve the policy effect through a reasonable combination of policy tools,especially in the case of limited resources such as capital and land,policy support should be“empowering”,not“pepper-spraying”.The conclusions provide meaningful enlightenment on policy goal setting and policy tool selection for precision governance.