基于ARIMA模型的高铁浮动票价与票额分配优化方法

The optimization method of floating ticket price and ticket allocation of high-speed railway based on ARIMA model

针对我国铁路单一的票价体系和确定性票额分配方式问题,探索高铁列车票价与票额的综合优化方法;依据时间序列分析原理,考虑客流的随机性,构建ARIMA客流预测表达式,将该表达式嵌入Log-Linear需求与价格的函数关系式中,结合票价制定规则、列车定员等约束,构建以铁路运输收益最大为目标的高铁列车浮动票价与票额分配综合优化模型;以G13列车为例进行计算分析,算例结果表明该模型能提高铁路运输收益,为高铁票价与票额的综合优化提供一定参考依据。

This paper aims to explore the comprehensive optimization method of high-speed railway fare and ticket amount for the single fare system of China’s railway and deterministic ticket amount allocation in China.Based on the principle of time series analysis,this paper considered the randomness of passenger flow,constructs the ARIMA passenger flow prediction expression which embed in the Log-Linear demand and price function.And a comprehensive optimization model for floating fares and ticket allocation of high-speed railway single trains with the maximum benefit of railway transportation was constructed.Taking G13 train as an example,the calculation results show that the model can improve the railway transportation revenue and provide a reference for the comprehensive optimization of high-speed rail fare and ticket amount.