美俄博弈下的叙利亚问题及其前景

The Syrian Conflict and Its Prospects in the Context of US-Russia Competition

在叙利亚问题的演进中,美国与俄罗斯的博弈始终扮演着关键角色,在某种意义上左右了叙利亚局势。美俄的博弈大致围绕叙利亚政权的存续、反恐战争和叙利亚重建三个阶段。俄罗斯的强势介入使美国等西方国家在叙利亚复制“利比亚模式”的图谋最终破产。美国撤军在一定程度上打破了叙利亚问题相关各方的力量平衡,叙利亚问题也呈现新的特征。叙利亚政府开始与库尔德人进行一定程度的合作。随着土耳其的军事介入,冲突的焦点转向叙利亚北部地区,叙利亚重建进程逐渐启动。美国和俄罗斯介入叙利亚问题的动因并不相同。对美国而言,叙利亚问题更多是中东的地区性问题,旨在通过叙利亚问题遏制伊朗的地区影响,打击反美国家和“伊斯兰国”等极端组织。对俄罗斯而言,叙利亚问题是俄罗斯提升国际地位和撬动当前国际秩序的重要支点,也是重新定义国际规范、重塑俄罗斯世界大国地位的重要契机。这也导致美国在叙利亚问题上游移不定。在“俄进美退”背景下,叙利亚安全局势基本可控,其政治解决也出现了积极信号。但美俄在叙利亚的博弈仍然存在很大的不确定性,叙利亚问题恐将长期化。

The competition between the United States and Russia has been a crucial factor in the Syrian issue,and has to some extent determined the course of events in Syria.The US-Russia competition can be roughly divided into three phases over different issues:the fate of the Syrian regime,the war on terror,and Syrian reconstruction.Russia’s forceful intervention in the Syrian issue prevented the US and other western countries from duplicating the“Libyan model”in Syria.With the withdrawal of US forces which upset the balance of power among related parties,things began to change in Syria.The Syrian government began to have limited cooperation with the Kurds.Syrian reconstruction began after the Turkish military intervention which shifted the focus to northern Syria.The factors driving Russian and US interventions are different,however.Since Syria is more of a regional issue for the US,it intends to use the issue to contain Iran’s influence in the region and hit back at regional states unfriendly to the US and at radical Islamic organizations such as ISIS.But for Russia it is not only an important fulcrum to enhance its international status and force change in the international order,but also an important opportunity to redefine international norms and to reestablish Russia as a world power.This has led to US wavering on the Syrian issue.In the context where Russia is gaining an upper hand,Syria’s security situation is basically controllable,and there is now the positive sign of reaching a political settlement.However,given the uncertainty resulting from US-Russia competition,the Syrian problem will likely persist for a long time.