林下养鸡贷款贴息政策取消对农户养殖规模增长率的影响

Impact of Abolition of Under-forest Chicken Breeding Loan Interest Subsidy Policy on Farmers’ Breeding Scale Growth Rate

本文基于浙江省林下养鸡行业634户养殖户的调查,采用多元回归分析法研究林下养鸡贷款贴息政策取消对农户养殖规模增长率的影响。结果表明:相比于未享受过贴息的农户而言,贴息政策取消会导致先前享受过贴息的农户养殖规模增长率在该年度显著下降,政策取消前享受补贴的时间越久,养殖规模增长率下降的程度越大;农户往年养殖规模越大,政策取消后养殖规模增长率下降程度越大;农户往年将更多资金投入到固定资产上,政策取消后养殖规模增长率下降程度越小;农户所处区域的经济发展水平越高,政策取消后养殖规模增长率下降程度越小。因此,政府部门应保持养殖补贴政策特别是保持经济欠发达地区养殖补贴政策的延续性,积极引导农户根据自身情况科学控制养殖规模、优化资金投入结构,从而降低政策取消带来的负面影响。

Based on the survey of 634 under-forest chicken raising farmers in Zhejiang province,this paper uses multiple regression analysis to study the impact of abolition of the under-forest chicken raising loan interest subsidy policy on the change of breeding scale of farmers who had previously enjoyed the loan interest subsidy.The results showed that,compared with farmers who did not enjoy the loan interest subsidy,the abolition of the loan interest subsidy policy would lead to a significant decline in the breeding scale of farmers who had previously enjoyed the loan interest subsidy in former years.The longer the farmer enjoyed the loan interest subsidy before the policy was abolished,the greater the decline in the growth rate of breeding scale;the larger the farmer's breeding scale in previous years,the greater the decline in the growth rate of breeding scale after the policy was abolished.The more funds are invested in fixed assets,the decrease of the growth rate of breeding scale will be smaller after the abolition of the policy;the higher the level of economic development of the farmer's region,the smaller the decline of the growth rate of breeding scale will be after the abolition of the policy.Therefore,government departments should maintain the continuity of breeding subsidy policy,especially in underdeveloped areas,and actively guide farmers to scientifically control the scale of breeding and optimize the structure of investment according to their own conditions,so as to reduce the negative impact of policy abolition.