区域中长期风电发电量概率预测方法

Probability Prediction Method of Regional Medium and Long Term Wind Power Generation

在环保型、资源节约型社会的实现过程中,我国的风力发电事业在近年来得到了政府的重视,取得了飞速的发展,风电的开发情况与不同地区风能资源有着密不可分的关系,但是在大规模开发风电的过程中也产生了风电浪费的情况,为此有必要对将风电作为主要电能供给方式的地区的风电发电量进行精确预测,以便于为当地电能的管理提供指导,文章在此背景下对预测模型的建立过程进行研究,充分考虑新增装机和风能变动对区域中长期风电发电量可能带来的影响,得出了风电发电量中长期概率预测模型以推动预测工作的落实.

In the process of environmental protection and resource-saving society,China’s wind power industry has been attached great importance by the government in recent years,and has made rapid development.The development of wind power is closely related to the wind energy resources in different regions,but there is also a waste of wind power in the process of large-scale development of wind power.Therefore,it is necessary to take wind power as the main power In order to provide guidance for local power management,this paper studies the establishment process of the prediction model,fully considers the impact of new installation and wind energy changes on the regional medium and long-term wind power generation,and obtains the medium and long-term probability prediction model of wind power generation to promote the prediction work Implementation of.