1992—2017年基于夜光遥感的中亚社会经济发展时空特征分析

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Socio-Economic Development in Central Asia based on A Series of Nighttime Light Images from 1992 to 2017

中亚各国自独立以来,先后经历了政治经济改革、俄罗斯金融危机、全球金融危机、国际原料价格浮动等多次重大事件。为研究中亚地区1992—2017年近30年的社会经济发展变化,以DMSP/OLS、NPP/VIIRS夜光数据以及年鉴数据为数据源,采用夜光总量(SNL)、夜光增长率(PNLG)等指数并结合社会经济参量对中亚社会经济的时空动态发展过程及驱动因子进行分析,研究结果表明:①夜光可较好的反映中亚国家社会经济发展的时空变化,且夜光对社会经济发展变化的反映较GDP等社会经济参量更直观更敏感;②独立初期的社会经济改革对中亚地区影响大、范围广,仅土库曼斯坦夜光总量(SNL)增长4.5%,其他各国夜光总量(SNL)均有下滑;③20世纪以来的中亚国家由于基础条件、资源禀赋等的差异,各国间差距逐渐拉大,抗风险能力差异大。如全球金融危机(2008年)对塔吉克斯坦影响最大(PNLG=-36.4%),哈萨克斯坦影响最小(PNLG=-3.6%);④中亚国家易受国际能源市场价格的影响尤其是油气价格增长。通过夜光对中亚社会经济的研究分析,能为中亚区域安全保障以及"一带一路"倡议的实施提供决策参考。

This paper takes Central Asian as study area, including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan,Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan. Since the independence of these countries, they have experienced many significant events, such as political and economic reforms, the Russian financial crisis, the global financial crisis, and the fluctuation of international raw material prices. In order to study the socio-economic developments and changes of Central Asia in the past 30 years(1992—2017), based on DMSP/OLS, NPP/VIIRS, and yearbook data, this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal developments and their driving factors using the total Night-time Light(SNL)index, the Night-time Light Growth Rate(PNLG), as well as the socio-economic data. The results show that:(1)Night-time light can better characterize the spatiotemporal changes of the socio-economic development. Also,night-time light is more intuitive and sensitive than the socio-economic parameters such as GDP;(2) The socioeconomic reforms in the early period of independence had a large and wide impact on Central Asia. The SNL of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan declined largely. Only the SNL of Turkmenistan increased by4.5%;(3) Due to differences in basic socio-economic conditions and the richness of natural resources, the gaps of night-time light in Central Asian countries have gradually widened, and the abilities to withstand risks have greatly varied. For example, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan are rich in natural resources, especially oil and gas, while Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have few natural resources. When the 2008 global financial crisis occurred, Kazakhstan was least affected(PNLG=-3.6%) while Tajikistan was most affected(PNLG =-36.4%);(4) Central Asian countries are susceptible to the impact of international energy market prices, especially the increase of oil and gas prices. The sharp rise in the price of international raw materials market in 2000, especially the price of oil and gas, had led to a sharp rise in SNL and a quick rebound in economy of Central Asian countries. However, the decline of international oil and gas prices in 2015 hammered the development of Central Asian countries who heavily relied on the exports of oil and gas. Based on the nighttime light images from 1992 to 2017, this paper studies the spatiotemporal characteristics of socio-economic development in Central Asian countries in nearly 30 years since the independence, and then explores the driving factors. This study can provide decision-making reference for the security guarantee of Central Asia and the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative.