空中交通系统自组织临界特性辨识及应用

Identification and Application of Self-organized Criticality of Air Traffic System

为了从全局视角揭示航班延误、航班取消的内在动力学机理,对空中交通系统进行特性分析。研究空中交通系统的广延耗散性、航班延误与航班取消的规模-频度幂律特性及其Hurst指数,辨识空中交通系统具有自组织临界性;采用幂律特性直线的斜率判断航班延误、航班取消的管理水平;依据Hurst指数大小,分析系统的航班延误、航班取消在自组织临界状态下的相关性与演化规律。结果表明,空中交通系统呈现耗散结构,具有自组织临界性;系统航班延误与航班取消的规模-频度在双对数坐标下表现出幂律特性,航班延误的管理水平优于航班取消;航班延误Hurst指数H值为0.416 1,显著性检验指标I为-4.200 1,航班取消H值为0.504 9,I为-3.077 6,均具有时间长程相关性,且分别表现为负向演化和正向演化。

In order to reveal the internal dynamic mechanism of flight delay and flight cancellation from a global perspective,characteristics of air traffic system are analyzed. Extend dissipative characteristics of the air traffic system,scale-frequency power law of flight delays and cancellations,and its Hurst index are studied to identify the self-organized criticality of air traffic system. The slope of power law characteristic line is used to determine management level of flight delays and cancellations. According to the Hurst index,the correlation and evolution rule of flight delays and cancellations in self-organized critical state are analyzed. The results show that the air traffic system presents a dissipative structure with self-organizing criticality. The scale-frequency of flight delays and cancellations in the system shows power-law characteristics in double logarithmic coordinates,and the management level of flight delays is better than that of flight cancellations. The Hurst index H value of flight delays is0.416 1,the significance test index I is-4.200 1,the flight cancellation H value is0.504 9,and I is-3.077 6,both of which have long-range correlation,and show negative evolution and positive evolution,respectively.