重大突发疫情对港口运营能力的影响研究

Impacts of Major Epidemic in Public Health Emergencies on Operational Capacity of Ports

为探究重大突发疫情对我国港口运营能力产生的影响,从投入产出的角度设计重大突发疫情下我国港口运营能力评价指标体系,依托投入产出指标构建细分指标权重的DEA模型和具有权重偏好的WP-SBM-DEA模型评估重大突发疫情发展不同时期内的港口运营能力,运用空间三维图和莫兰指数散点图分析出重大突发疫情对港口运营能力的影响规律及其空间特征。结果显示:重大突发疫情潜伏期、增长期、爆发期、衰退期、长尾期内我国港口运营能力的平均水平分别为0.617,0.523,0.4,0.474,0.615,表明重大突发疫情对我国港口运营能力产生短期负面影响,并且重大突发疫情爆发期产生的负面影响最大,但不会改变我国港口发展长期稳中向好的趋势。此外,重大突发疫情下我国港口运营能力的空间三维图具有多个高低不同的峰值、莫兰指数散点图中90%的港口位于第1象限和第3象限,表明我国港口运营能力的空间差异化、集聚化特征不受重大突发疫情的影响。

In order to investigate the impacts of major epidemic in public health emergencies on operational capacity of China’s ports,an evaluation indicator system is designed. From the perspective of input and output,a DEA model with subdivided weights of indicators and a WP-SBM-DEA model with weight preference are established based on input-output indicators to evaluate the operational capacity of China’s ports in different periods of the development in public health emergencies. The spatial three-dimensional maps and Moran’s I index scatter plots are applied to investigate influence patterns and spatial characteristics of China’s port operational capacity under major epidemic conditions. The results show that the average levels of China’s port operating capacity during the incubation period,growth period,outbreak period,recession period, and long tail period of the major epidemic in public health emergencies is0.617,0.523,0.4,0.474,0.615,respectively,indicating that although a major epidemic outbreak has a short-term negative impact on operational capacity of China’s ports,and that the outbreak period of major epidemic in public health emergencies has the largest negative impact,it will not alter the long-term stability and prosperity of China’s port development. In addition, the spatial three-dimensional maps of operational capacity of China’s ports under major epidemic outbreak have multiple peaks with different heights,and90%of ports in the Moran’s I index scatter plots are located in the first and third quadrants, indicating that the spatial differentiation and clustered characteristics of operational capacity of China’s ports are unaffected by major epidemic in public health emergencies.