新冠肺炎疫情对中国国际航运网络空间格局影响分析

An Analysis of Influences of the COVID-19 on the Spatial Structure of the China's Global Shipping Network

基于2020年2月—5月全球航线班轮运输服务信息,对新冠肺炎疫情影响下中国国际集装箱航运网络空间格局的变化开展研究。考虑新冠肺炎疫情发展动态,基于全球主要航运公司往来中国的集装箱班轮运输服务信息及航线的名义舱位,构建了新冠肺炎疫情下中国际集装箱海上运输的有向加权复杂网络模型,从中国国际航线集装箱运力、航运网络拓扑结构特征以及港口和航线的地位3个方面对疫情期间中国国际航运网络空间格局的动态变化情况进行了定量分析。航线运力的分析结果表明,疫情爆发初期,中国国际集装箱运力损失超过50%,随着中国对疫情的积极控制,2020年第6周—第12周航线运力逐渐恢复,随后由于疫情的全球蔓延,中国对外出口海运运力再次出现波动下降趋势;网络建模及拓扑特征指标分析结果表明,疫情对中国国际集装箱航运网络的空间格局造成了严重冲击。其中,航运网络平均度值下降了23.73%,聚集系数下降了26.4%,平均路径长度下降了19.0%。

In order to investigate changes of the spatial pattern of China’s international shipping networks under the impacts of the COVID-19 epidemic,a directed-weighted network of China’s global container shipping is constructed and studied based on the service information of several top international container liners from February to May2020.The dynamic changes of the spatial pattern of China’s international shipping network during the spread of the COVID-19 are quantitatively analyzed from3 main aspects:the international container shipping capacity of China,the topological characteristics of China’s international shipping network,and the importance of role different ports and routes play in the whole shipping network. The analysis results withrespecttotheshippingroutecapacityshowthatintheearly stage of the outbreak of the COVID-19,the shipping route lost more than half of the capacity. With the implementation of control countermeasures of the epidemic in China,the capacity of shipping routes kept recovering constantly betweenthe6 thand12 thweek of2020. However,soon after,the export capacity of China decreased again due to the spread of theepidemicoverseas.Accordingtotheresultsofnetworkmodelinganalysis,themaintopologicalcharacteristicsofChina’s international container shipping networks are seriously affected,among which,the average degree has decreased by23.73%,the clustering coefficient has decreased by26.4%,and the shortest path length has decreased by19%.