基于船舶时空轨迹数据的水上输出风险评估

Risk Assessment of Water Output Based on Ship Spatial-temporal Trajectory Data

水路运输加快了新型冠状肺炎疫情的传播,船舶停靠疫情港口的时间与所携带的传播风险成正相关关系。为评估新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的水上输出风险,以水路运输为切入点,利用船舶时空轨迹数据,基于船舶在泊天数、在泊港口相应时间感染率与船上人员总数,计算出停靠湖北省单条船舶所携带的传播风险,并结合船舶在泊港口和在泊艘次,量化分析武汉"封城"前后14天内全国省份的输入风险。数值计算表明,对于同一省份,武汉"封城"之前的输入风险是"封城"之后的4~6倍"。封城"之后的风险传播范围相较于"封城"之前有所减小,是"封城"之前的82.31%。其中,江苏省输入风险最高,安徽省、江西省、湖南省、上海市和重庆市输入风险较高,其他省份输入风险较低。研究可为全国省份加强对新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的水运防控提供科学支撑。

Waterway transport accelerates the spread of COVID-19,and the time of vessel docking at the port in epidemic is positively correlated with the risk of virus transmission. In order to assess the risk of waterborne export risk of COVID-19,the risk of transmission carried by a single vessel from Hubei province is calculated using the spatial-temporal trajectory data of the vessel as a starting point,based on the number of days the vessel is at berth,the infection rate at the port of berth,and the total number of personnel on board. Combined with the berthing ports and the number of berthing ships,the import risk the epidemic for all provinces in the14 days before and after the lockdown of Wuhan is quantitatively analyzed Numerical calculation shows that for one province,the import risk before the lockdown of Wuhan is4 to6 times higher than that after the lockdown. The spread of risk after the lockdown is82.31%of the range before lockdown. Among them,Jiangsu Province has the highest import risk,while Anhui Province,Jiangxi Province,Hunan Province,Shanghai City,and Chongqing City have higher import risk;the import risk of other provinces is lower. This study can provide scientific support for prevent and control of the transmission of COVID-19 in water transport for all provinces.