鄂州市近60年高影响天气变化特征及其对农业的影响

Characteristics of high-influence weather variation and its influence on agriculture in Ezhou city in the recent 60 years

基于鄂州市1959―2018年气候资料,应用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法、Morlet小波分析等方法,分析鄂州市近60年霜日数、积雪日数、低温日数、高温日数、雨日数和暴雨日数等6类高影响天气演变特征。结果表明,21世纪10年代以来鄂州市霜日数、积雪日数、低温日数、暴雨日数减少趋势十分明显,高温日数和雨日数增多趋势明显。近60年来霜日数和低温日呈现明显下降趋势;高温日数呈现明显增多趋势;积雪日数、雨日数和暴雨日数变化趋势总体平稳,略有增多。霜日数1月和12月最多;低温日数和积雪日数1月最多;高温日数7月最多;雨日数春季3―5月相对较多,秋季9―11月相对较少;暴雨日数6月最多。霜日数、积雪日数、低温日数、高温日数、雨日数、暴雨日数分别在2010、2001、1981、2005年,2000年和2015年之后,1968年发生突变。霜日数在整个时域上存在着准20年的年代际周期;积雪日数在1964―2014年存在着准20年的年代际周期;低温日数在整个时域上存在着18~22年的年代际周期;高温日数在整个时域上存在着准16年的年代际周期和4~6年的年际周期;雨日数在整个时域上存在着准22年的年代际周期和准8年的年际周期。高影响天气的变化能对鄂州市农业产生有利和不利的影响。

Based on the climatic data of Ezhou city from 1959 to 2018,the evolution characteristics of six types of high-influence weather in recent 60 years,including frost days,snow days,low temperature days,high temperature days,rainy days and rainstorm days are analyzed by means of linear trend method,Mann-Kendall mutation test and Morlet wavelet analysis.The results show that the decreasing trend of frost days,snow days,low temperature days and rainstorm days in Ezhou city is obvious since the 10s of the 21st century,and the increasing trend of high temperature days and rainstorm days is obvious.In the past 60 years,the number of frost days and low temperature days showed a significant downward trend;The number of high temperature days showed a significant increase trend;The number of snow days,rainy days and rainstorm days showed a steady and slightly increased trend.The number of frost days is the most in January and December;The number of low temperature days and snow days is the most in January;The number of high temperature days is the most in July;The number of rainy days is more from March to May in spring,less from September to November in autumn;And the number of rainstorm days is the most in June.The number of frost days,snow days,low temperature days,high temperature days,rainy days,rainstorm days mutated in 2010,2001,1981,2005,2000 and after 2015,1968,respectively.The number of frost days has a quasi-20-year interdecadal cycle in the whole time domain;The number of days with snow cover from 1964 to 2014 has a quasi-20-year interdecadal cycle;The number of low temperature days has a 18~22 years interdecadal cycles in the whole time domain;The number of high temperature days has a quasi-16-year interdecadal cycle and 4~6 years annual cycle in the whole time domain.The number of rainy days has a quasi-22-year interdecadal cycle and quasi-8-year annual cycle in the whole time domain.The change of high-influence weather can produce favorable and unfavorable effects on agriculture in Ezhou city.