中国与“一带一路”国家汽车出口贸易潜力及影响因素研究

Research on automobile export trade potential and influencing factors between China and“the Belt and Road”countries

基于随机前沿引力模型,采用2009-2017年中国对“一带一路”66个国家汽车出口相关数据,研究中国对“一带一路”国家汽车出口贸易潜力及影响因素。结果表明,自由贸易协定签订、进口国班轮航运连通性指数、贸易及相关基础设施质量指数、政治稳定性指数、贸易自由度是影响中国汽车出口的重要因素;中国对“一带一路”国家的汽车出口贸易潜力较大,对不同国家汽车出口贸易潜力出现两极分化的特征。

Based on the stochastic frontier gravity model,China’s automobile export data from 66 countries of“the Belt and Road”from 2009 to 2017 are used to study China’s automobile export trade potential and influencing factors.The results show that the signing of free trade agreements,the liner shipping connectivity index of importing countries,the quality index of trade and related infrastructure,the political stability index,and the degree of freedom of trade are important factors that affect China’s automobile exports.The potential of automobile export trade is large,and the potential of automobile export trade to different countries is polarized.