特朗普政府与自由主义国际秩序:背弃抑或支持?

The Trump Administration and the Liberal International Order: To Abandon or to Support?

现实主义者和自由主义者都认为特朗普正在破坏自由主义国际秩序。现实主义者认为特朗普政府的所做所为将加速美国放弃对外扩展自由体制,自由主义者则担心这将削弱美国作为自由秩序领导者的合法性。但就事实来说,二者的判断都不完全准确。基于国内资本密集型部门的经济利益考量以及作为海洋主导性国家的地缘政治必需,美国其实不太可能完全背弃自由主义国际秩序。就现实情况而言,虽然特朗普对促进民主、开放贸易以及全球霸权地位多有抱怨,他也确实正在较以往更加坚定地试图削减维护自由主义国际秩序的成本,但特朗普政府的总体作为最终证明,美国依然是自由主义国际秩序的支持者。因此,注定会令现实主义者和自由主义者失望的是,美国不会放弃对外部国际环境的积极主动塑造,同时也不太可能完全坚持国际机制和多边主义。

While both realists and liberals agree that Trump is ruining the liberal international order, they differ with respect to the impact of such behavior. Realists think this will help the US to abandon its attempts to expand liberal democracy abroad while liberals fear that this will undermine the legitimacy of the US as the leader of the liberal world order. However, neither realists nor liberals are entirely correct in their assessments. Given the economic interests of domestic capital-intensive sectors and the geopolitical need to maintain its maritime hegemony, the US is unlikely to completely abandon the liberal international order. As a matter of fact, although Trump regularly complains about democracy promotion, free trade and maintaining US global hegemony and is trying to the costs in maintaining hegemony, the overall approach of his administration shows that the US is still a supporter of the liberal international order. Therefore, what will inevitably disappoint realists and liberals is that the US will neither give up efforts to shape its external environment, nor be firmly committed to international regimes and multilateralism.