惠州物流需求预测研究——兼论惠州市综合运输体系建设

Research on Logistics Demand Forecast and Construction of Integrated Transportation System in Huizhou——On the Construction of Comprehensive Transportation System in Huizhou

惠州市物流业迅速发展,政府也就支撑现代物流的运输体系进行了规划。但当前的综合运输体系条件能否满足未来一定时期物流发展的需求,是我们未雨绸缪营造良好的经济运营环境所必须关注的问题。研究通过采集惠州市经济主要运行指标数据和物流业务量数据,采用线性回归法和弹性系数法对未来惠州市物流需求量进行预测,得出结果如下:未来一段时间,惠州市物流需求量高于运输体系规划时的预测值。研究者在分析其中原因后,建议应加大加快综合运输体系建设步伐,以满足物流发展的需求。

With the rapid development of logistics industry in Huizhou,the government has also planned the transportation system to support modern logistics.It is what we should concern whether the current comprehensive transportation system conditions can meet the needs of logistics development or not in a certain period in the future in order to build a good economic operation environment ahead of time.Through collecting the data of main economic operation index and logistics business volume of Huizhou,the linear regression method and elastic coefficient method are used to predict the future logistics demand of Huizhou city,and the results are as follows:in the future,the logistics demand in Huizhou is higher than the predicted value when the transportation system is planned.After analyzing the reasons,the researchers suggested that the construction of integrated transportation system should be accelerated to meet the needs of logistics development.