承接产业转移示范区能够促进制造业升级吗?

Can Industrial Relocation Demonstration Zones Promote Manufacturing Industry Upgrade?

本文基于2010年以来设立的国家级承接产业转移示范区的准自然实验,通过构建双重差分模型,评估示范区对地区制造业升级的影响。结果表明,示范区的设立并未有效促进地区制造业升级,且这一结论在考虑估计的识别条件及进行一系列稳健性检验后依旧成立。进一步地,示范区对地区制造业升级的不利影响是承接效应和激活效应合力的结果。承接效应导致制造业存在“低端结构锁定”,不利于制造业升级;激活效应激发制造业的内生活力,有效地促进制造业升级。针对示范区激活效应的机制探讨表明,集聚效应与创新升级效应是示范区产生激活效应的中介机制,即示范区设立能够提升集聚程度以及促进创新升级,进而推动制造业升级。激活效应的地区异质性分析表明,示范区促进制造业升级的效应在西部地区、初始技术水平较低的地区、要素禀赋较高的地区及政府能力较强的地区较为明显。

Based on the quasi natural experiment of the national industrial relocation demonstration zones(NIRDZs)since 2010,this paper evaluates the impact of the NIRDZs on upgrading the regional manufacturing industry by constructing a dual difference model,indicating that the establishment of NIRDZs did not effectively promote regional manufacturing upgrade.This conclusion is still valid after considering the estimated identification conditions and passing a series of robustness tests.Further,the adverse effect of NIRDZs on upgrading the manufacturing industry is the combined effect of two aspects.Firstly,the undertaking effect of the establishment of NIRDZs is not conducive to the manufacturing industry upgrade,that is,the establishment of NIRDZs will lead to the existence of“low-end structural lock-in”in the inter-regional manufacturing industry;secondly,the agglomeration effect of NIRDZs and the implementation of policy safeguards stimulated the endogenous vitality of the development of the manufacturing industry,and significantly increased the technical complexity of the manufacturing industry in the region.The study on the mechanism of the activation effect in the NIRDZs shows that agglomeration effect and innovation upgrading effect are the intermediary mechanism,that is,the establishment of the NIRDZs can improve the degree of agglomeration and promote innovation upgrading,and then promote the manufacturing industry upgrade.The regional heterogeneity of the activation effect shows that the effect of promoting the manufacturing industry in the NIRDZs is more obvious in the western region,regions with the low initial technology level,regions with high factor endowment and regions with strong government capacity.