经济转型与冲击:复合增长模型的理论机制

Development Transformation and Economic Shock:Theoretical Framework of Synthesis Growth Model

通过结合索罗模型和熊彼特内生增长模型,可以创建经济增长路径在二者间跃迁的复合增长模型。模型跃迁的过程类似于中国经济从“高速”向“高质量”增长方式转变的过程,会出现经济增速下滑、资本形成率下降、创新能力上升、产业结构集中四个方面的冲击。与传统动态一般均衡模型不同,换挡期的经济增速下滑并不源于外部冲击,而是内部经济动态系统存在分歧点所造成的。在此复合增长模型框架下,旨在熨平冲击的经济政策,将推迟经济转型的发生,而供给侧结构性改革将推动经济增长模式转变。

By combining the Solow model with Schumpeter's endogenous growth,this paper creates a synthesis growth model in which the economic growth path can be transitioned between the Solow stage and the Schumpeter stage.The process of model transition is similar to the process of China's transition from“high-speed”to“high-quality”growth mode.The economy endures shocks after transition,where demonstrated in four areas such as economic growth decline,capital formation rate decline,innovation capability increase,and industrial structure concentration.Unlike the traditional dynamic general equilibrium model,the decline in economic growth during the shift period does not stem from external shocks,but rather the result of different steady-state transitions in the internal economic system.Under the framework of this synthesis growth model,the policy aimed at smoothing the long-term economic cycle will delay the transition of the economy to the endogenous growth phase,while the supply-side structural reform will promote the transformation of the economic growth model.