新型城镇化背景下流动特征与农民工回流意愿的关系

Migration Characteristics and Return Migration Intentions of Migrants in the Context of New Urbanization

使用2016年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,借助描述性分析和多分类Logistic回归模型分析方法,探讨新型城镇化背景下农民工回流意愿的现状与特点、流动特征与回流意愿的关系。研究发现,农民工的回流意愿很弱,有回流意愿并打算近期回流的农民工比例较低,回流地域以原居地为主、户籍地的乡镇和区县政府所在地为辅。模型结果显示,流动特征显著影响农民工的回流意愿:跨省流动者"打算回流"的概率大于省内流动者;流动时间短和非举家流动者"打算回流""近期回流""回原居地"的概率分别大于流动时间长和举家流动者;有留守子女者"打算回流""近期回流"的概率大于没有留守子女者。最后,建议政府实施以"异地市民化"为主、"回流式市民化"为辅的市民化策略;继续深化制度改革,为农民工流动扫清制度壁垒和提供均等化公共服务;促进中西部和东北部地区的经济社会发展,出台鼓励农民工回乡创业和就业的优惠政策等方式来推进以农民工市民化为重点的新型城镇化发展。

Drawing on data from the 2016"Migrants'Dynamic Monitoring Survey",using descriptive analysis and three multinomial logistic regression models,this paper describes the latest status and characteristics of return migration intentions,and explores the relationship between migration characteristics and return migration intentions.Findings showed that migrants'return intentions is particularly weak;more than 40%of migrants plan to return in the near future;the return regions are diverse and dispersed.They present a multi-location interactive mode of"destination place,namely the original location as the main part and administrative townships and counties(districts)as the auxiliary part."Among the migrants who return to their administrative townships and counties(districts),the proportion of those who return to their administrative county is higher than that those who return to their administrative township.The results of the models show that migration characteristics have a significant influence on return migration intentions.Intra-provincial migrants are more likely to return than interprovincial migrants.Compared with migrants with shorter migration times,migrants with longer migration times are more likely to return;to do so within 2 years;and return to their point of origin.Migrants within the category of non-whole family migration are more likely to return;to do so within 2 years;and return to their point of origin than in the case of whole-family migration.Compared with migrants who have no children left behind,migrants who have left children behind are more likely to return and to do so within 2 years than those who have not.Migrants'return intentions is obviously influenced by characteristics such as career,income,education level,age,and other variables.Relatively speaking,those with lower occupational prestige,income and education levels and those of older age are more likely to return.Based on the above results,it is suggested that the government should implement the strategy of"holding local citizenization as essential,with reflux citizenization as a supplement";continue to deepen systemic reform to clear up institutional barriers and provide equal public service to migrant workers;and promote the economic and social development of the Central,Western and Northeastern regions,formulating preferential policies to encourage farmers to return.