中国城市轨道交通建设的发展规律及其影响因素

On the development law and influencing factors of urban rail transit construction mileage in China

城市轨道交通建设是城市建设的重要组成部分,对于城市发展有重要意义。通过单、双因素分析分别研究城市GDP与中心区人口密度对城市轨道交通发展里程的影响,在此基础上,将城市轨道交通发展划分为3个阶段,并进行政策影响的定性与定量分析。研究结果表明:轨道交通建设对于城市GDP的初始要求为5000亿元左右,中心区人口密度的初始要求约为4000人/km2;轨道交通发展不同阶段受城市GDP和中心区人口密度的影响程度不同;轨道交通投资比越高,政策影响系数越高,且轨道交通投资的影响存在滞后性;中国多数城市轨道交通发展受到政策的促进作用(如武汉),但是沈阳等少数城市也存在受到政策的抑制作用。

Urban rail transit construction is significant to urban development and is an important part of urban construction.This paper uses single-and double-factor analysis to study the impact of urban GDP and central area population density on the development mileage of urban rail transit.Based on this,the development of urban rail transit is divided into three stages,and a qualitative and quantitative analysis of policy impact is also conducted.The results show that the initial requirement for urban GDP of rail transit construction is about 500 billion yuan and the initial requirement for population density of central area is about 4,000 people/km2.Different stages of rail transit development are affected by urban GDP and central area population density in different degrees.The higher the rail transit investment ratio,the higher the policy impact coefficient is.The development of rail transit in most cities of China is promoted by policies,such as Wuhan,but there are also a few cities,such as Shenyang,where rail transit is inhibited by policies.