人口老龄化背景下经济增长的国际比较

An International Comparative Study on Economic Growth with Aging Populations

老龄化正在成为影响全球经济的关键因素。从老龄化阶段时序、年代时序、经济发展阶段时序等维度,对目前世界上老龄化水平最高的14个国家1960—2018年期间的经济增长率进行比较分析,结果发现:老龄化水平较低阶段的经济增长速度高于老龄化水平较高的阶段,快速老龄化国家面临的压力明显大于老龄化平稳发展的国家,经济发展水平较低的国家在高度老龄化阶段所承受的压力更大。进入21世纪后,14个国家在老龄化趋同的同时,经济增长率出现分化,其中一个重要原因是各国劳动参与率之间存在着较大差异。

Aging is becoming a key factor influencing the global economy. Investigating sequences of economic development and aging through phases and years, this study compared and analyzed the economic growth rates of 14 countries with the highest level of aging in the world from 1960 to 2018. The findings exhibit the following: the economic growth rate of a country is higher in the phase of a lower level of aging than that of a higher level;the pressure faced by rapidly aging populations is significantly greater than that faced by countries with stable aging rates, furthermore, the pressure borne by countries with lower levels of economic development in the phase of higher aging is greater. Since the 21st century, while aging in these 14 countries has converged, their economic growth rates have differentiated;nevertheless, one of the important reasons concerning this is that there are great differences in labor participation rates among these countries.