俄国在中亚的扩张——动因、进程及其战略分析

Russia’s Expansion in Central Asia——Motivation,Process and Strategy

俄国在哈萨克草原的扩张拉开了其在中亚扩张的历史序幕,但俄国正式对中亚发起大规模扩张战争却开始于1860年代初期,其背后的动因主要有三:安全动因、经济动因与战略动因。当时有利的国际形势和较低的征服成本,则为俄国的扩张提供了激励性条件。从1860年代初期至1880年代中期,俄国在中亚的扩张进程可以分为三个阶段:第一波扩张高潮阶段(1860年代初期-1873年)、扩张的间歇阶段(1874-1878年)、第二波扩张高潮阶段(1879-1885年)。在这二十多年的时间里,俄国相继征服了河中三汗国以及外里海地区的土库曼部落。俄国在中亚扩张战略的形成路径主要有两条,它们都带有明显的自下而上的特征。俄国奉行的扩张战略原则是机会主义,它的扩张战略有四大特点:扩张意志坚定,但在具体的行动中又非常谨慎;善于把握扩张时机,出手主动,果断有力;善于并敢于进行外交欺骗,以外交为军事扩张打掩护;以军事手段扩张为主,同时辅之以政治和心理手段。总的来讲,俄国的扩张战略是相对成功的,尽管它没有完全实现在中亚的扩张目标。

Russia’s expansion in the Kazakh steppe undrew the historical prelude to its conquest of Central Asia,yet it is in the early 1860 s that Russia officially launched the large-scale conquest war against Central Asia.It was driven by three main motivations,namely,security,economic and strategic motivations.The then favorable international situation and rather low costs provided incentive conditions for Russia’s expansion.From the early 1860 s till the mid-1880 s,Russia’s conquest of Central Asia could be divided into three stages:the climax of the first conquest stage(early 1860 s-1873),the intermittent stage(1874-1878),and the climax of the second conquest stage(1879-1885).During these three stages,Russia conquered the three Khanates in Transoxiana and Turkmen tribes in the outer Caspian Sea.There are two main approaches,which are obviously bottom-up,for the formation of Russia’s expansion strategy in Central Asia.Russia’s expansion strategy principle is opportunism,and its expansion strategy has four features:firm will to expand but very cautious in concrete actions;good at catching opportunities and behaving actively;adept and bold in diplomatic imposturing and covering for military expansion;mainly engaged in military expansion with political and psychological means as auxiliary approaches.Objectively speaking,Russia’s expansion strategy is relatively successful,although it has not completely achieved its expansion goal in Central Asia.