中国低碳发展目标及协同效益研究综述

Review of low carbon development targets and relative co-benefits in China

发展绿色低碳经济已经成为我国重要战略选择。更为严格的低碳发展目标在一定时期内会带来更大的社会福利影响,但低排放路径所能带来的协同效益可以抵消部分损失,加速或者以更小的成本实现中国的低碳发展目标。本文梳理了我国在总体CO2排放、能源结构、工业、农业、交通、建筑、碳汇等领域提出的2020年具体发展目标以及国家自主贡献目标,对近年来我国低碳发展的协同效益研究领域进行了回顾,主要针对协同减排污染物、健康效益、经济效益等进行分类文献梳理分析。研究发现:①学者普遍认同实施温室气体减排措施不仅能实现显著减少大气污染物和减少水耗等环境效益,同时可以带来可观的健康效益和经济效益。②现有协同效益研究已取得较大进展,未来仍需要加强区域或城市级别研究、诸多因素综合考虑的系统研究和协同效益多样化分析,改进健康损失价值、寿命损失价值、单位污染物减排量系数等关键参数估值方法和数值研究等。不同行业和地区低碳发展能够取得可观的协同效益依赖于保护生态环境、生态文明建设与应对气候变化的统筹安排、协调推进,需要建立健全强有力的法律、法规和政策保障体系和实施运行机制,严格法规标准的落实执行,更加强调通过节能和能源结构调整来实现源头减排,依靠创新驱动发展战略实现低碳发展的新型工业化和城镇化。

Developing green and low-carbon economy has become an important strategic choice in China.Stricter low-carbon development targets will have a greater impact on welfare for a certain period of time,but their co-benefits could further offset some welfare losses and help to accelerate or achieve China's low-carbon development targets at a lower cost.This paper carries out a review on China’s specific development targets in 2020 in the fields of total carbon emissions,energy structure,industry,agriculture,transportation,construction,carbon sink,etc.China's targets of National Determined Contribution(NDC)is also explained.It reviews and analyzes the research on the co-benefits of low-carbon development in China in recent years,especially the literatures about collaborative pollutant reduction,health benefits,economic benefits,and so on.It has been found that most researchers agree that the implementation of greenhouse gas emission reduction measures can not only significantly reduce air pollutants,water consumption and other environmental effcts,but also bring considerable health and economic effcts.Moreover,although existing research on co-benefits has made great progress,it is still necessary to strengthen the regional or urban level research,the systematic research that can comprehensively consider more factors,and the studies on different kinds of co-benefits,and to improve the valuation method and numerical research of key parameters like health loss value,life loss value,and emission reduction cofficient of pollutant in the future.Significant co-benefits of low carbon development achieved in different industries and areas rely on the overall arrangement and coordinated progress of ecological environment protection,ecological civilization construction and work on dealing with climate change.It is necessary to establish a strong safeguard system and an applicable mechanism for laws,regulations and policies,to enhance the implementation of laws and standards,to further emphasize the realization of source emission reduction based on energy conservation and energy structure adjustment,and to realize new style industrialization and urbanization of low-carbon development with innovation-driven strategies.