合作博弈视角下南海区域的蓝碳合作可行性研究

Feasibility Study of blue carbon cooperation in the South China Sea region from the cooperafioe game per spective

通过国际合作解决全球气候变暖的问题仍是21世纪的一个紧迫的课题,“蓝碳”的国际合作为这一课题提供了一种具有经济可行性的方案。南中国海具有最丰富的“蓝碳”资源,同时它也具有重要的战略价值,其域内的蓝碳合作平台搭建将有助于南海区域的和平与稳定。通过梳理国内外“蓝碳”研究的相关文献,论证了蓝碳生产的经济属性。在明确南海域内国家蓝碳生产的经济要素基础上,选择道格拉斯函数为产出效益函数,并以此构建合作博弈模型,利用数学模型推导与证明合作博弈解的存在,进而证明蓝碳合作的可行性。查找中国、印度尼西亚和泰国的红树林、盐沼、海草床面积与GDP的数据,把数据代入合作博弈的夏普利值模型中进行计算,验证了合作博弈的解的存在。研究结果表明南海域内国家的蓝碳合作从长期看存在稳定的谈判解。并从蓝碳的生产成本、南海域内的政经风险、文化认知差异等方面讨论了合作面临的现实难题。针对这些问题,从长期与短期两个方面给出了政策建议。长期的策略为:构建一个统一、可线上交易的碳汇市场;建立东亚区域“蓝碳”标准体系;在域内建立“蓝碳”增汇的示范合作项目;推动海洋高新产业的领域的合作。短期策略为:加大“蓝碳”科普宣传上的合作;开展“蓝碳”经济的数据收集与分析、“蓝碳”资源的科研项目合作;建立“海洋碳汇”测量、近海养殖环境监测、海洋“碳汇”协同创新合作的区域合作平台;组建南海域内国家的“蓝碳”经济论坛。

Addressing global warming through international cooperation remains an urgent task for the 21 st century. The international‘blue carbon’cooperation provides an economically feasible scheme for this initiative. The South China Sea has the most abundant‘blue carbon’resources. The establishment of a‘blue carbon’cooperation platform in this region will contribute to its peace and stability. Thus the‘blue carbon’cooperation in the South China Sea region has important strategic significance. From the perspective of cooperative game,the existence of cooperative game solution is deduced and proved by mathematical model,and then the economic feasibility of‘blue carbon’cooperation is proved in this research. The data of mangrove,salt marsh,seagrass bed and GDP of China,Indonesia and Thailand were found to be substituted into the Shapley model of the cooperative game for calculation,which verified the existence of the solution of the cooperative game. The research results show that there is a stable negotiated solution for‘blue carbon’cooperation among countries in the South China Sea region in the long term. The practical difficulties faced by the cooperation are‘blue carbon’production costs,political and economic risks in the South China Sea region,and cultural differences. In order to solve these problems,policy recommendations are provided from both short-term and long-term perspectives. Long-term strategies include the development of a unified,online trading carbon sink market,the establishment of a‘blue carbon’standard system in East Asia,the establishment of demonstration cooperation projects of‘blue carbon’for scaling,and the promotion of cooperation in the field of marine high-tech industries. Short-term strategies include the increase of cooperation in the popularization of ‘blue carbon’science,the implementation of data collection and analysis of ‘blue carbon’economy,the cooperation in scientific research projects of ‘blue carbon’resources,the establishment of‘marine carbon sink’measurement,the monitoring of offshore aquaculture environment,the establishment of regional platforms for collaborative innovation and cooperation of marine ‘carbon sinks’,and the establishment of a‘blue carbon’economic forum for countries in the South China Sea region.