中国养老政策供给的地区差异性研究

On the regional differences of elderly-care policy supply in China

人口快速老龄化与养老文化变迁背景下,资源合理利用的养老政策有效供给是老龄工作实效性提升的基础。各地养老政策的供给量与供给内容并不相同,评价差异的合理性和判断各地养老施策的理想模式,需要结合地区实际财政支持水平与老年群体需求状况来综合衡量。基于此,本文通过Python文本挖掘技术采集了中国的养老政策文本,筛选了2010—2019年的规范性政策文件,利用TF-IDF赋权法分地区提取关键词。在此基础上,利用系统聚类(HCM)分析了地方养老政策内容层次的完整性,应用社会网络分析(SNA)探索了不同层次养老政策间的联动特征,并结合主要地区因素分析了地区差异的成因与合理性。研究发现:①各地养老政策内容层次相对完整,共同核心为养老资金和老年人生存型需求。②各地政策联动模式差异明显,发展型需求的政策设计与政策网络明显不同,养老施策的实效性需要系统性政策网络和政策充分落实双重保证。③各地养老脆弱性不可仅根据经济状况和老龄化程度做简单判断,既有政策实效性和老年群体弱势特征也需纳入考虑。④各地老龄工作当下核心问题与重点任务不同,部分地区仍具有后发优势。因此,整体来看,地方养老施策需避免简单数量累加,提升政策系统性和协调性,充分贯彻老年友好型社会建设理念,确保政策配套出台和有效落实。具体到不同地区,各地需科学制定梯度式战略规划,有效平衡财政约束与老年群体需求,合理调动多方资源,充分探索区域协作的可能。

With a rapidly aging population and a changing intergenerational relationship,the effective supply of relevant policies,which can ensure rational utilization of resources,has become the key to the improvement of the efficiency of China’s elderly-care service.Local elderly-care policies vary significantly in both quantity and content in China.To evaluate the rationality of regional discrepancies and to explore an ideal model of policy supply need comprehensive consideration of actual financial support and demands of the elderly at the local level.Therefore,this paper collects the elderly-care policies issued by central and local governments and chooses normative ones from 2010 to 2019,then extracts the key words of these policies though TF-IDF weighting method.Accordingly,this paper analyzes the integrity of local policies by the hierarchical cluster method,dissects the linkage characteristics of different policies by Social Network Analysis and analyzes the causes and rationality of regional discrepancies based on main regional socio-economic factors.The results are as follows:①The key elements of regional elderly-care policies are relatively complete,and the common cores are pension funds and basic survival demands of the elderly.②The linkage characteristics of policies are significantly different in various regions,especially policies designed for developmental needs.To guarantee effectiveness of elderly-care policies,a systematic policy network and reasonable implementation are both needed.③It is not convincing to simply judge the vulnerability of an elderly-care service only by its regional economic status and aging degree;the efficiency of former policies and the characteristics of the elderly should be taken into account,too.④Regional discrepancies contribute to the diversity of core issues and key tasks,and the advantage of backwardness still exists in some regions.In conclusion,it is important not to accumulate similar policies,but to make a coordinating policy system.And it is essential to introduce reasonable supporting policies,which are helpful to ensure the effective implementation of elderly-care policies,and fully promote an age-friendly society.Specifically,gradient strategic plans need to be formulated respectively in different regions,so as to effectively balance the fiscal constraints and elderly needs,rationally mobilize multiple resources,and fully explore the possibilities of regional cooperation.