摘要
为了提高我国堤防工程防洪减灾的管理与应急能力,完善我国堤防工程的风险防控体系,笔者基于堤防工程常见的失效模式,综述了堤防工程风险因子的划分和堤防工程安全运行风险评价的常用方法,总结了堤防工程失事后果评估方法与风险标准,指出了我国堤防工程风险分析方面存在的若干问题。堤防工程的安全评价工作应该从单一失事模式的评价向堤防系统的风险评价模式转变,定性分析向定量分析发展,加强堤防工程风险因子不确定性研究以及堤防工程失事后果的评估研究,加快建立我国堤防工程的风险标准。
Inorder to improve the management and emergency level of flood control capability of dykes and improve the risk prevention and control system of levees in China,the common methods and standard of risk assessment for the safefy operation of levees were reviewed,which was based on the common levee failure modes.The methods about categorizing the risk factors and evaluating the consequences of levee accidents were summarized by this paper.The existing problems in risk analysis of levee engineering in China were pointed out.The safety assessment methods should be changed from the single failure mode to multimodes of levee engineering system,developing the analysis method from qualitative analysis to quantitative analysis and strengthening the research on the consequences of accidents and the uncertainties of the risk factors of the levee engineering.The risk assessment standard should be established as soon as possible in China.
作者
王小兵
章青
夏晓舟
WANG Xiaobing;ZHANG Qing;XIA Xiaozhou(College of Mechanics and Materials,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China)
出处
《人民黄河》
CAS
北大核心
2020年第8期25-31,35,共8页
Yellow River
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1502603)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项(2019B65814)
江苏省研究生科研创新计划项目(SJKY19_0422)。
关键词
堤防
安全运行
失效模式
风险标准
风险分析
levee
safety operation
failure mode
risk standard
risk analysis
