明代汾河流域洪涝灾害发展趋势研究

Development Trend of the Fenhe River Basin Flood in Ming Dynasty

应用坎德尔(Kendall)秩次相关检验和滑动平均两种趋势分析方法,对明代汾河流域跨越277 a的洪涝灾害资料进行统计分析,并通过对该区同期的人口、耕地面积等社会因素变化情况进行研究,探寻了其洪涝灾害发展趋势及原因。结果表明:明代汾河流域的洪涝灾害发展呈现显著增长趋势,中后期相对严重;灾害严重程度逐步加重与当时人口、耕地面积的增长有关,但耕地开垦基本上在平川(盆地)进行,山区、丘陵区坡耕地开垦较少,灾害尚未达到非常严重的程度。

With the method of the Kendall rank correlation test and moving average,the flood data about 277 years in the Fenhe River Basin of the Ming Dynasty were analyzed,as well as the social factors such as the population and cultivated land area in the same period.The results show that flood in the Fenhe River Basin has a remarkable growth trend especially in the later Ming dynasty;the causes should be due to the population growth and the farmland increase.For the cultivated land reclamation is mainly on flatland instead of on mountain area and hills and soil erosion has not yet led to very serious disaster.