天津市老旧社区韧性影响因素及对策研究

Study of Influential Factors of Resilience in Old Community in Tianjin and Countermeasures to Them

社区是城市防灾的基本单元,其中社区韧性研究已成为国际城市韧性领域研究的前沿热点.笔者从抗震防灾角度出发,选择天津市3个不同年代老旧社区为研究对象,首先运用文献综述法和现场调研法,总结并提出6类22个老旧社区韧性的关键影响因素;其次分别发放问卷,应用SPSS统计分析数据;然后运用结构方程模型(SEM)建模方法,构建二阶验证性因子分析模型分别进行实证分析;最后总结归纳出老旧社区韧性受基础设施、选址与规划设计水平、社会资本、制度因素、人口特征及经济资本的直接影响,且影响程度依次递减.并在研究结论的基础上,针对权重高的影响因子提出优化对策,为老旧社区韧性和灾害防控技术研究提供科学依据.

Community is the basic unit of urban disaster prevention,and the research on community resilience has become the frontier hot spot in the field of international urban resilience.From the perspective of earthquake resistance and disaster prevention,this paper chooses three old communities of different ages in Tianjin as the research object.Firstly,using literature review method and field investigation method,the study summarizes and puts forward the key factors affecting the resilience of six types of 22 old communities.Secondly,we issue questionnaires separately and applies SPSS statistical analysis data.Thirdly,the study uses structural equation modeling method to construct second-order confirmatory factors.The sub-analysis model has been carried on the empirical analysis respectively.Finally,it concludes that the resilience of old communities is directly affected by infrastructure,location and planning level,social capital,institutional factors,demographic characteristics and economic capital,and the degree of impact decreases in turn.Finally,on the basis of the research conclusions,the optimization strategy is put forward to provide scientific basis for the research of resilience and disaster prevention and control technology to old communities.