基于突变理论的多式联运通道安全风险评价研究

Research on Risk Assessment of Multimodal Transportation Corridor Based on Catastrophe Theory

为了有效地规避多式联运的安全风险,降低人员伤亡率与货物损失率,本文通过分析多式联运特征,剖析系统中存在的薄弱之处,利用SHEL模型从人、设、环、管4个方面对多式联运通道安全风险影响因素进行分析,构建多式联运通道风险评价指标体系。并以实例进行分析,验证指标系统的科学性与合理性。

In order to effectively avoid the safety risks of multimodal transportation and reduce rate of the casualty and property damage,this paper analyzes the characteristics of multimodal transportation and the weaknesses in the system.This paper also uses the SHEL model to analyze risk factors in the following 4 aspects:people,environment,equipment,and management.Besides,this paper analyzes the influencing factors of multimodal transportation corridor security risk and constructs a multi-modal transport corridor risk assessment index system.Finally,this paper uses examples to analyze and verify the science and rationality of the indicator system.