中美贸易战下人民币汇率的变动规律及趋势预测——基于ARIMA模型的实证研究

The Change Rule and Trend Forecast of RMB Exchange Rate under the Sino-US Trade War--Research Based on ARIMA Model

本研究基于2018年1月--2019年12月人民币对美元汇率的时间序列数据,通过构建ARIMA模型研究了对人民币汇率的短期变动规律,并根据建立的ARIMA(3,0,4)模型预测了2020年1月至3月的人民币对美元汇率变动趋势。结果表明:ARIMA(3,0,4)模型适合对人民币汇率的预测,且预测精度较高;在未来短时期内,人民币兑美元贬值趋势会得到抑制,人民币币值会出现小幅回升趋势。本研究提出了中美双方要管控分歧、加强人民币国际化进程、完善市场化的汇率形成机制等对策建议。

This study is based on the time series data of RMB exchange rate against the US dollar from January 2018 to December 2019,and studies the short-term change law of RMB exchange rate.Based on the established ARIMA(3,0,4)model,the trend of RMB-USD exchange rate from January to March 2020 is predicted.The results show that the ARIMA(3,0,4)model is suitable for the prediction of RMB exchange rate,and the prediction accuracy is high.In the short term in the future,the depreciation trend of the RMB to US dollar exchange rate will be restrained,and the RMB value will show a small recovery trend.This study puts forward some Suggestions for China and the United States to manage their differences,strengthen the process of RMB internationalization,and improve the market-oriented exchange rate formation mechanism.