涉外企业汇率形成机制及应对策略研究——基于山东省291家涉外样本企业的调查

Study on Exchange Rate Expectations Model and Hedging Strategy of Import and Export Enterprises--Based on a Random Survey of 291 Companies in Shandong Province

通过对291家企业的随机汇率预期调查,本文总结出涉外企业的五种汇率预期形成机制——高端研究型、自主研究型、综合判断型、个人主导型和“随波逐流”型,分析其在人才配备、信息来源、分析频率和决策机制等方面存在的差异,并分析了汇率衍生品、调整商业报价等不同汇率避险策略的适用性。最后,针对企业在汇率预期及应对中存在的各种问题,提出汇率风险管理的政策建议,以期帮助企业更好地规避汇率风险。

Based on a random survey of 291 companies,this paper sums up the five kinds of exchange rate expectations model,including high-end research model,independent research model,comprehensive judgement model,personal domination model and"drift"model.We compare the personnel allocation,information source and decision-making mechanism of these models and then explore the applicability of various exchange rate hedging strategies.According to the shortcomings of companies in predicting exchange rate and managing exchange risk,we finally put forward policy suggestions to help companies manage exchange risk.