中国杠杆率水平的国际比较和走势分析

The Trend of China's Leverage Ratio and International Comparison

在世界主要经济体中,中国杠杆率尤其是非金融企业杠杆率处于较高水平,自2015年中国非金融企业杠杆率达到历史新高以来,各界对国际清算银行(BIS)公布的杠杆率①数据开始格外关注。BIS从2013年3月开始按季度发布40多个国家和地区②的非金融部门杠杆率数据。4月30日,BIS公布全球43个主要国家和地区的2019年4季度总体和分部门(包括非金融企业、居民部门和政府部门)的杠杆率数据。通过对杠杆率的国别比较分析和近十年中国杠杆率走势和结构分析,我们得出总体杠杆率位列17,非金融企业杠杆率位列第8,居民杠杆率位列11(与处于相似发展阶段时国家比较),政府部门杠杆率处于中等水平,中国总杠杆率、居民杠杆率和政府杠杆率均呈现逐年攀升的走势,非金融企业杠杆率呈现先升后降的走势。并从稳步推进非金融企业去杠杆、控制居民杠杆率过快上涨、政府加杠杆和防风险并重三方面提出相关政策建议。

The leverage ratio of China,especially the non-financial enterprises,is at a relatively high level,compared with the other major economies in the world.Since the leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises in China reached a record high in 2015,people have paid special attention to the leverage ratio data released by BIS.On April 30,2020,BIS released the leverage ratio(including non-financial enterprises sector,residents sector,and government sector)of the fourth quarter of 2019,43 major countries and regions are included.We find that China’s overall leverage ratio ranks 17^th,the non-financial enterprise leverage ratio ranks 18^th,the resident leverage ratio ranks 11^th(compared with countries at similar development stages),and the government sector leverage ratio is in the middle.The resident leverage ratio and the government leverage ratio have shown a rising trend in recent years,and the non-financial enterprise leverage ratio presents volatility.Finally,we put forward policy recommendations from the three aspects of steadily advancing the deleveraging of non-financial enterprises,controlling the excessive increase in the leverage ratio of residents and preventing risks.