湖南省新型冠状病毒肺炎流行特征与临床特征

Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of COVID-19 in Hunan Province

目的探讨湖南省新型冠状病毒肺炎(coronavirus disease 2019,COVID-19)的流行病学与临床特征。方法对确诊病例的流行病学和临床特征及其影响因素进行描述与分析。结果湖南省累计报告COVID-19确诊病例1 019例。从2020年1月21日确诊首例输入性病例至4月1日,病例的增长首先经历快速增长期,在2月中旬病例数趋于稳定,2月下旬至3月14日,为治愈病例数持续增长的消退期。前期病例以输入性病例为主,2月2日后本地病例新增数超过了输入性病例新增数。52.7%的病例临床首发症状为发热,但部分病例为腹泻恶心等消化道症状。聚集性病例代间距为5(2,9)d,一代病例中位潜伏期为7.5(5,11)d,二代病例中位潜伏期为10(7,14)d,各地市的累计发病率与对应城市的迁徙指数呈正相关,相关系数r=0.628 (P=0.016)。结论湖南省COVID-19的总体疫情已经得到控制,但防控境外输入性病例的压力较大,且企业复工与学生复学增加了人员的流动性,近期疫情防控形势依然严峻。

Objective To investigate epidemiological and clinical characteristics of Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) in Hunan, China. Methods The epidemic data on COVID-19 in Hunan Province as of Apr 1 th, 2020 were collected, and the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of the confirmed cases and influencing factors for this epidemic were described and analyzed. Results A total of 1 019 confirmed COVID-19 cases were reported in Hunan. Form the confirmation of the first imported case on Jan 21 th to Apr 1 th, 2020, the increase of cases first experienceed a period of rapid growth, and the early reported were mainly imported cases. The number of local new cases exceeded the number of imported new cases after Feb 2 th. In the middle of February, the number of cases tended to be stable. The period from late Feb to 14 th Mar was a regression period for the sustained increase in the number of cured cases. The first clinical symptom was fever in 52.7% of the cases, but some cases had gastrointestinal symptoms such as diarrhea and nausea. The gene-ration spacing of clustered cases was 5.0(2, 9)days, the median incubation period of first-generation cases was 7.5(5, 11) days, and the median incubation period of second-generation cases was 10.0(7, 14) days. The cumulative incidence rate in each city was positively correlated with the migration index of the corresponding city, with the correlation coefficient r = 0.628(P=0.016). Conclusions The overall outbreak of COVID-19 in Hunan has been under control, but there is great pressure to prevent and control imported cases. Meanwhile, resuming work and study has increased the population migration, and the current situation of epidemic prevention and control is still severe.