俄罗斯经济:从危机到危机

Russian Economy:Between Crisis

2015—2016年俄罗斯发生经济危机,2017—2019年国家经济处于停滞状态。这一时期,俄罗斯宏观经济形势受到制度诉求(包括消费者需求、固定资产投资、对外贸易环境和经济制度导向)的制约,国家经济政策起主导作用。从俄罗斯经济危机的形成及表现出的直接原因和制度环境看,俄罗斯经济在制度上已经融入全球市场环境。根据世界经济周期理论和危机周期理论判断,俄罗斯中期金融和经济周期的直接影响因素是外部资源需求带来的冲击。20世纪90年代和2000年以后俄罗斯发生的经济危机表明,俄罗斯经济受到全球化冲击,后者对俄罗斯经济造成了深远而持久的影响,导致大规模金融危机和经济危机。经济危机的根本原因在于,20世纪90年代初形成、至今未得到克服的原教旨主义式的制度保守主义妨碍了能够削弱甚至阻止外部冲击作用的内在补偿器和稳定器的形成。俄罗斯经济摆脱2015—2016年危机的努力受到两个主要因素的制约:其一,新的世界经济衰退周期开始,制造了新的外部需求冲击和资源冲击;其二,俄罗斯经济制度向以索取性为痼疾,不仅不鼓励创造新的经济增长点,反而扼杀了所有的增长资源。原文发表于俄罗斯《空间经济》杂志2020年第1期,经作者同意在《西伯利亚研究》以中文刊发。

Russia experienced an economic crisis in 2015—2016 and the national economy was in a state of stagnation in 2017—2019.During the period,Russia’s macroeconomic situation was constrained by institutional demands(including consumer demand,fixed asset investment,foreign trade environment,and economic system orientation),but national economic policies played a leading role.From the perspective of the formation of the Russian economic crisis and the direct causes and institutional environment,the Russian economy had been institutionally integrated into the global market environment.According to the judgment of the world economic cycle theory and crisis cycle theory,the direct cause of Russia’s mid-term financial and economic cycle was the impact of external resource demand.The economic crises that occurred in Russia in the 1990s and after 2000 showed that the Russian economy was hit by globalization,and the latter had a profound and lasting impact on the Russian economy,leading to large-scale financial and economic crises.The root cause of the economic crisis was that fundamentalist institutional conservatism,which was formed in the early 1990 s and had not been overcome so far,hindered the formation of internal compensators and stabilizers that could weaken or even prevent external shocks.Russia’s efforts to escape the 2015—2016 crisis were constrained by two main factors:1)the beginning of the next cycle of recession in the global economy,which created new demand and resource external shocks;2)the stability of the extractive nature of Russian economic institutions that were not oriented towards creating a platform economic growth,but,on the contrary,on the deactivation of growth resources.The original article was published in the first issue of the Russian magazine Space Economy in 2020 and was published in Chinese in Siberian Studies with the author’s consent.