摘要
为了解决传统地质灾害危险区预测精准低,计算过程复杂问题,提出一种地震诱发滑坡地质灾害的地貌因子敏感性评价模型,以满足不断增长安全需求。首先,基于贡献率法量化得出不同地形地貌因子对应的面积值,其次,利用确定性系数法更为直观分析地震滑坡发生的关键因子种类,提高后续评价精准度,根据地质因子、外界诱发因子以及人为因子建立评价体系。最后通过几率数值模型、信息量评价模型对敏感性评价,将其分为低敏感性区、中敏感性区、高敏感性区、极高敏感性区。实验证明:评价模型计算简便、精准度高,有着较强的合理性和适用性,可作为地震滑坡相关研究和发展规划的基础科学依据。
In order to solve the problems of low accuracy and complex calculation process of traditional geological hazard prediction,a sensitivity evaluation model of landslide geological hazard induced by earthquake is proposed to meet the increasing safety demand.Firstly,the area values corresponding to different topographic and geomorphological factors are quantified based on contribution rate method.Secondly,the deterministic coefficient method is used to analyze the key factors of earthquake landslides more intuitively,improve the accuracy of follow-up evaluation,establish an evaluation system according to geological factors,external induced factors and human factors,and calculate overall frequency between the average density of geological hazard points of various index factor attributes.Finally,the sensitivity is evaluated by probability numerical model and information quantity evaluation model,which can be divided into sensitive area,middle sensitive area,high sensitive area and extremely sensitive area.Experiments show that the evaluation model in this paper is simple and accurate,and has strong rationality and applicability.It can be used as a basic scientific basis for research and development planning of earthquake landslides.
作者
马长玲
李科
MA Changling;LI Ke(Shanxi Energy Institute,Xianyang 712000,China;Shanxi Provincial Expressway Construction Group Company,Xi’an 710000,China)
出处
《华南地震》
2020年第2期92-98,共7页
South China Journal of Seismology
基金
陕西能源职业技术学院校级重点科研课题《基于分形理论的陕南山区滑坡地质灾害敏感性分析与易发性评价——以岚皋县地质灾害为例》(18KYZ03)。
关键词
地质灾害
地貌因子
敏感性评价
贡献率
Geological hazards
Geomorphological factors
Sensitivity evaluation
Contribution rate