物流体系发展水平对中国居民消费影响的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Logistics System Development Level on the Consumption of Chinese Residents

本文以中国2013-2017年31省面板数据为基础,构建物流业发展程度评价指标体系,以熵值法确定选取指标所占权重,运用突变级数法得出31省市现代物流发展水平得分,进行现代物流对中国居民消费影响的实证研究。结果表明:东、中、西部物流业发展水平得分均值分别为:0.8663、0.7844、0.7325,东、中、西部物流业发展程度逐步递减;东、中部现代物流体系发展对居民消费的促进作用相差不大,西部的促进作用大约是东、中部的两倍,西部居民消费水平由物流业带动作用最强,接着是中、东部。最后,提出建议:优化西部地区现代物流体系;激发东部地区现代物流产业的溢出效应;平衡东、中、西部物流业发展水平。

Based on The 31 provincial panel data from 2013-2017,this paper constructs a system of evaluation index of the degree of development of logistics industry,determines the weight of the selected indicators by the entropy method,uses the mutant sin method to obtain the score of the development level of modern logistics in 31 provinces and cities,and carries on the empirical study of the impact of modern logistics on the consumption of Chinese residents.The results show that the average score of the development level of the logistics industry in the east,middle and west is:0.8663,0.7844,0.7325,the development of the logistics industry in the east,the middle and west gradually decreases;Finally,it is proposed to optimize the modern logistics system in the western region,stimulate the spillover effect of the modern logistics industry in the eastern region,and balance the development level of the logistics industry in the east,middle and west.