基于概率语言COPRAS的多属性风险型应急决策方法

Multi-attribute risk emergency decision-making method based on probabilistic linguistic COPRAS

针对多属性应急决策过程中的风险性和不确定性,提出一种结合累积前景理论和概率语言COPRAS的应急决策方法。首先考虑到专家在评价过程中的犹豫性和偏好程度,采用概率语言表达专家的评估信息;其次将概率语言形式的评价信息纳入到累积前景理论的决策框架中,通过计算方案在不同前景状态下的前景价值矩阵和概率权重矩阵得到综合前景价值矩阵;然后在综合前景矩阵的基础上,以所有备选方案的整体效用度最大化为目标函数建优化模型来求解指标权重,并利用COPRAS方法对备选应急方案进行排序;最后通过一个算例说明了所提方法的有效性和可行性。

Considering the risk and uncertainty in multi-attribute emergency decision-making,this paper proposing an emergency decision-making method based on cumulative prospect theory and probability language COPRAS.First,considering the hesitation and preference of experts in the evaluation process,this paper employed probabilistic linguistic to express evaluation information of experts;secondly,this paper incorporated the evaluation information in the form of probabilistic linguistic into the decision-making framework of cumulative prospect theory,and calculated the prospect value matrix and probability weight matrix of schemes to obtain the comprehensive prospect value matrix;then,on the basic of comprehensive prospect value matrix,this paper constructed an optimization model with the objective function of maximizing the overall utility of all alternatives to solve the index weight,and used COPRAS method to rank alternative emergency plans.Finally,this paper gave an example to illustrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed approach.