自由贸易试验区与地区居民消费增长——以福建自由贸易试验区为例

Pilot Free Trade Zone and Regional Consumption Growth——A Case Study of Fujian Pilot Free Trade Zone

收集和整理了1998—2017年省级面板数据,基于合成控制法实证研究福建自由贸易试验区设立的消费拉动及其动态效应。结果表明,如果没有设立自由贸易试验区,福建省2015—2017年的年均居民消费水平为21728.07元,而实际的年均居民消费水平则为23384.02元,可见福建自由贸易试验区的政策溢出效应平均每年约为1655.95元,年均溢出率为7.62%。此外,稳健性检验的结果在统计意义上也较显著,证实福建自由贸易试验区对区域内居民消费水平提升产生了积极作用。最后在实证分析的基础上给出相应的政策建议。

This paper collects and collates the provincial panel data from 1998 to 2017, and research the consumption pull and its dynamic effect of Fujian Pilot Free Trade Zone based on the synthesis control method. The results show that if there is no Fujian Pilot Free Trade Zone, the average annual consumption level of Fujian Province in 2015—2017 is 21728.07 yuan, while the actual average annual consumption level is 23384.02 yuan. It can be seen that the average annual policy spillover effect of Fujian Pilot Free Trade Zone is 1655.95 yuan, and the average annual spillover rate is 7.62%. In addition, the results of the robustness test are statistically significant, which confirms that Fujian Pilot Free Trade Zone has a positive effect on the improvement of regional residents’ consumption level. Finally, on the basis of empirical analysis, the corresponding policy recommendations are given.