“健康杭州”规划下杭州市卫生技术 各类人员需求预测分析——基于ARIMA模型的预测研究

Forecast and Analysis on the Needs of Health Technical Personnel in Hangzhou under the“Healthy Hangzhou”Plan--Empirical Analysis Based on ARIMA Model

目的:通过对杭州市卫生技术各类人员数量的时间序列数据进行分析,对至2030年杭州市执业(助理)医师、注册护士、药学专业技术人员、技师人员数量进行预测,为判断能否达到《"健康杭州2030"规划纲要》制定的约束性目标,为杭州市卫生技术人员培养与配置提供决策依据。方法:从《浙江省统计年鉴》、杭州市国民经济和社会发展统计公报等收集数据,运用ARIMA模型对其进行分析与预测。结果:到2030年,杭州市的执业(助理)医师呈平稳上涨趋势,数量将增至11.8万人,每千人口执业(助理)医师数将达到9.89人,1名执业(助理)医师配有1.06名护士,药学专业技术人员占卫生专业技术人员比例降低至4.70%,技师人员占卫生专业技术人员比例降低至4.53%。结论:杭州市每千人口执业(助理)医师数将在2021年至2022年超过5.9人,达到《"健康杭州2030"规划纲要》制定的约束性目标,注册护士、药学专业技术人员、技师人员数量均未达到既定目标。

[Objective]By analyzing the time series data of the number of various types of health technology personnel in Hangzhou, the number of licensed(assistant) physicians, registered nurses, pharmacy technicians, and technicians in Hangzhou will be predicted by 2030 to determine whether it can reach "The binding goals set in the Healthy Hangzhou 2030’ Planning Outline", in order to provide a basis for decision-making for the training and deployment of health technicians in Hangzhou. [Method]Data were collected from "Zhejiang Statistical Yearbook", Hangzhou National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin, etc., and analyzed and predictedwith ARIMA model.[Result]By 2030, the number of licensed(assistant) physicians in Hangzhou will increase steadily, and the number will increase to 118,000. The number of licensed(assistant) physicians per 1,000 population will reach 9.89, and one licensed(assistant) physician will be equipped with 1.06 The number of nurses, pharmacy technicians and health professionals decreased to 4.70%, and the proportion of technicians to health professionals decreased to 4.53%.[Conclusion]The number of practicing(assistant) physicians per 1,000 population in Hangzhou will exceed 5.9 from 2021 to 2022, reaching the binding target set by the "Healthy Hangzhou 2030 Planning Outline". However, the number of registered nurses, pharmacy technicians and technicians have not reached the set target.