盱江流域径流模拟及其对气候变化的响应

Runoff Simulation of Xujiang River and Its Response to Climate Change

为研究盱江流域径流对气候变化的响应,构建了基于SWAT的分布式水文模型。采用SUFI-2法对SWAT模型的参数进行率定和验证。率定期和验证期的决定性系数R2和纳什系数Ens均大于0.9,模型在该流域的适用性较好。在SWAT-CUP中引入参数标识符建立49种气候情景(温度升高或降低1~3℃,降水增加或减少10%~30%)并代入模型中模拟径流。结果表明,温度与径流呈弱负相关;降水与径流呈强正相关;温度对径流的影响远小于降水对径流的影响。为直观表达降水-温度-径流量的关系,模拟三者空间平面关系函数,其决定性系数R2约等于1、和方差为0.0006474、均方根误差为0.003752,降水-温度-径流的关系可用平面函数表达。

The SWAT based distributed hydrologic model was established to simulate the response of runoff to climate change in Xujiang River Basin.The SUFI-2 method was used to calibrate and validate the parameters of SWAT model.The correlation coefficients R2 and Nash coefficient Ensduring the calibration and validation periods are both greater than 0.9,and the model has good applicability in this basin.The 49 climate scenarios(temperature increases or decreases by 0~3℃,precipitation increases or decreases by 10%~30%)was established by setting parameter identifiers in SWAT-CUP,and the runoff was simulated.The results show that there is a weak negative correlation between temperature and runoff,a strong positive correlation between precipitation and runoff;The influence of temperature on runoff is much smaller than that of precipitation.To express the relationship among precipitation-temperature-runoff,the spatial plane function of the three was simulated,the R2 is near to 1,the SSEis 0.0006474,the RMSEis 0.003752.Thus,the relationship between precipitation-temperature-runoff can be expressed by plane function.