多元非线性回归模型在气候变暖方面的应用——以加拿大地区为例

Application of multiple nonlinear regression model in climate warming——Take Canadaasan example

针对全球变暖最新变化的停滞与“极寒天气”现象,基于现有数据与相关研究,结合气象理论和系统科学理论知识,采用相关分析、多元非线性回归分析等方法,对加拿大地区气温和地气系统辐射、海洋表面温度、全球碳排放之间的相关性进行了定量分析和定性分析.针对气温的时空变化趋势和极端天气现象建立了数学模型,并进行了计算求解.以夏洛特顿地区为例,给出了合理的气候变化预测.

Aiming at the stagnation of global warming and the phenomenon of“extremely cold weather”,based on the existing data and relevant research,combined with meteorological theory and system science theoretical knowledge,this paper uses correlation analysis,multiple nonlinear regression analysis and other methods to quantitatively analyze the correlation between the temperature in Canada and the radiation of the earth atmosphere system,ocean surface temperature and global carbon emissions qualitative analysis.In this paper,a mathematical model is established for the temporal and spatial variation trend of air temperature and extreme weather phenomena,and a calculation solution is carried out.Taking Charlottetown area as an example,a reasonable climate change prediction is given.