基于政策仿真的机关事业养老保险统筹基金可持续性研究

A Study on the Sustainability of Pension Insurance Coordination Fund in Government Organs and Public Institutions Based on Policy Simulations

通过构建精算模型对机关事业单位养老保险统筹基金的可持续性进行研究,经测算发现:统筹基金支出2015—2050年呈逐年增加趋势,2051—2060年呈逐年下降趋势;统筹基金支出远大于收入,从制度建立之初便开始产生缺口。降低养老金调整系数能有效减少统筹基金支出,改善统筹基金收支状况。短期来看,缴费基数越大,统筹基金收支缺口越大,负担较重;但从长期来看,缴费基数越大,统筹基金收支缺口越小,能有效改善统筹基金收支状况。考虑延迟退休后,能显著改善统筹基金收支状况;降低单位缴费率,会增大统筹基金的收支缺口。为此,多方筹集资金,当年统筹基金缺口当年弥补;建立合理的基本养老金调整机制;做实并适当提高缴费基数;尽快出台并落实延迟退休政策;不降低机关事业单位基本养老保险单位缴费率;统筹基金与个人账户基金打通使用,将个人账户做成名义账户。

Through constructing an actuarial model,this paper studies the su stainability of the pension insurance coordination fund in government departments and public institutions.The findings of the measurement show that the expenditure of the coordination fund has an increasing tendency year by year from 2015 to 2050,but the tendency turns to decline year by year from 2051 to 2060.The expenditure of the coordination fund is much larger than its income,and the gap has been created since the beginning of the system.To lower the pension adjustment coefficient can effectively reduce the expenditures and improve the balance of the coordination fund.In the short term,the larger the contribution base,the larger the gap between the income and expenditure of the coordination fund and the heavier the burden.But in the long run,the larger the contribution base,the narrower the gap between income and expenditure of the coordination fund,which can effectively improve the balance of coordination fund.If the retirement age is delayed,the balance of coordination fund can be significantly improved.If the contribution rate of the units is lowered,the balance gap of coordination fund will be increased.Therefore,it is suggested that to raise funds from multiple sources and make up for the gap of the coordination fund in the same year,to establish a reasonable pension adjustment mechanism,to put into effect and appropriately increase the payment base,to introduce and implement the policy of delayed retirement age as soon as possible,not to lower the payment rate of pension insurance in government departments and public institutions,to bridge the use of the coordination fund with the personal account fund,and to turn the personal accounts into nominal accounts.