住房价格对城镇家庭消费的影响——来自多期微观面板数据的证据

The Impact of Housing Price on Urban Household Consumption:Evidence from Multi-period Panel Data of Households

本文使用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2010年、2012年、2014年和2016年四期的微观面板数据,运用固定效应模型,研究我国城镇家庭的住房价格对消费的影响,并在此基础上创新性地使用事后分家行为作为事前有无购房意愿的衡量指标,研究家庭的购房意愿差异所产生的房价对消费的异质性影响。结果显示,总体上房价上涨对消费无明显影响;但购房意愿强烈(即将因婚嫁分家)的家庭则会随着房价上涨而显著减少消费。本文使用多期微观面板数据,弥补了已有文献数据的不足。

This paper applies the fixed-effect model to China Household Panel Studies(CFPS)data in 2010,2012,2014 and 2016 to study the impact of housing price on urban households consumption.In addition,we use family separation as a measure of willingness to purchase a house,to study the heterogeneity of housing prices on consumption due to differences in household purchasing intentions.The results show that the increasing housing price has no significant impact on consumption for the whole sample;but households with strong willingness to purchase houses(which will soon be divided because of marriage)will significantly reduce their consumption as housing price rises.The paper uses multi-period households panel data which makes up for the shortcomings of the existing literature.