债务杠杆、金融素养与家庭金融脆弱性--基于中国家庭追踪调查CFPS 2014的实证分析

Debt Leverage,Financial Literacy and Household Financial Fragility-An Empirical Investigation Based on CFPS 2014 Data

家庭金融脆弱性影响着居民家庭的金融福利。本文使用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS 2014)数据,全面考察了债务杠杆、金融素养对家庭金融脆弱性的影响,并着重检验了金融素养在缓解债务杠杆对家庭金融脆弱性不利影响中的作用。研究发现:家庭债务杠杆率的上升增加了家庭金融脆弱性,但是较高的金融素养能够显著缓解债务杠杆率对家庭金融脆弱性的负面影响,进而降低家庭发生金融脆弱的概率。进一步地,金融素养对于正规债务杠杆率对家庭金融脆弱性的缓释效应更大,在数字金融业态较为发达的地区,金融素养发挥这种缓释器效应的效果更为明显。本文为理解中国家庭金融脆弱性的形成提供了新的证据,也为政策部门控制家庭部门债务风险提供了明确的政策启示。从短期看,需要降低债务增长速度和控制杠杆率;从长期看,还应加强金融知识普及和提高家庭金融素养。

In recent years,the household debt in China has accumulated rapidly.The debt burden associated with the rising household leverage ratio will give rise to financial difficulties for households and increase credit risks of the household sector.However,in reality,households with high leverage ratios may still be able to maintain financial balance,and the financial fragility has not exhibited a systematic rise in the household sector.One plausible explanation is that financial literacy plays a buffering role.Based on the household survey data from China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)for 2014,this paper measures household financial fragility by“financial margins”under uncertainty,and examines how financial literacy moderates the adverse effect of leverage on household financial fragility from the perspective of risk identification and risk-coping capacities.The empirical results show that increase in leverage exacerbates household financial fragility,but financial literacy can effectively improve the risk identification and risk coping abilities of households,and therefore alleviate the adverse effect of leverage on household financial fragility and play a risk-buffering role.This finding is robust after potential endogeneity problems are controlled.Moreover,improvement in financial literacy exerts a greater effect in alleviating the adverse impact arising from formal credit than informal credit.Besides,the development of digital financial system reinforces the impact of financial literacy in alleviating financial fragility.This paper may contribute to literature in three ways.Firstly,it quantifies the importance of financial literacy on household welfare,analyzes its influencing mechanism from the perspectives of risk identification and risk coping.Secondly,it measures household financial fragility by the“financial margin”of unexpected expenditure occurred during uncertainties,assesses financial literacy at the comprehensive level and focuses on the analysis of the moderating effect of financial literacy on the impact of leverage on household financial fragility.Finally,this paper analyzes the formation of credit risk in the household sector from the perspective of household financial fragility,highlights the independence of the mechanism of household financial fragility,and provides empirical evidence for macro-prudential regulation as well as government strategy choices.